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很抱歉, 因為JAVA CHART出了點問題, 所以這禮拜大盤分析用寫的方式

上禮拜美股出現強勁跌深反彈的動作, DOW JONES從6500一路大漲到7200

SP500也從680的低點一路漲到750區域, 兩個指數都有將近10%的反彈.

在這要注意的是, 這波趨勢是熊市反彈, 還是多頭市場的開始, 市場上看法相當.

從波浪理論來推算, 我們已確結束了第5波, 有可能進入a,b,c反彈趨勢.

這意味著, 往空頭方向做的最好獲利出場, 往多頭方向做的, 可以拉回加碼.

SPY2年的周線圖, 在連續跌了4周後, 呈現了一個很漂亮的多頭反轉訊號 (Bullish Engulfing)

3/13 SPY收在$76左右, 唯一美中不足的是, 量(Volume)上面並沒有跟著增加

股價漲幅也太快太急, 這一般被認定於空頭回補, 並不代表牛家進場.

3/16-3/20這禮拜, 我們預期有一段的拉回, 如果SPY拉回到$72-$73左右跟著再呈現一段higher low的漲勢

SPY重測試$80將指日可待.  但是如果市場回測也跌破之前$68的低點, $60將是我們空頭目標

其實, SPY跌深於$60也未必是一件壞事, 那將是上帝給你這一生一次的機會

全力買進搭配sell call option來降低成本, 明年的今天, 你將是坐在100%的獲利上

不過在還沒發生前, 還是看圖說故事, 了解你用的工具(tools),市場方向(directions)與進場動作(triggers)

來達到獲利操作!

 

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美股邦交易日誌

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  • 路人甲
  • Hey John, you've mentioned several times in your aticles about covered calls, do you think this is a good time for that strategy? It will significant limit your profit. and would you recommond some stocks suitable for covered calls?
  • That is a great question, there are couple ways to do the setup. Even though we are close to the bottom, but most likely we will have a "L" shape recovery, our key is not to predict the market, but to setup our position to max profits. I am very heavy in oil and financial, I don't do individual stocks but ETFs such as FAS, DIG, XLF, USO....etc. I first start with nake puts selling, this way I can get my shares at better price while profits from it. Once I get assigned, I will sell calls to continue with lower my cost. My cover calls are a bit different, as many of our students know, I compound my collected premium, convert them to more "free" shares. Yes, if you don't know where to sell your calls, it will limit your profits. However, if you know your technical analysis well (using ATR and trend support/resistant) and market well, you will be able to continue collect call premiums without getting assigned away.

    tplitrading 於 2009/03/17 12:39 回覆